TradesMatrix Guide
What Is a Good Trading Expectancy?
A good expectancy is not a universal currency amount or percentage. It depends on the unit of measurement, average risk, costs, trade frequency, and the reliability of the sample used to calculate it.
Interpret the sign and scale
Positive historical expectancy means the formula produced an average gain per trade for the selected sample and assumptions. Negative expectancy means the sample average was a loss. A small positive value may disappear after fees or slippage.
Compare like with like
- Use the same currency and cost convention.
- Compare the same strategy, market, and holding period.
- Consider expectancy relative to the amount risked per trade, not only the absolute amount.
- Review drawdown and losing streaks as well as the average.
Do not overread historical results
Expectancy is estimated from past outcomes and can change. Outliers, small samples, execution changes, and market regimes can all alter the estimate. It is a review metric, not a promise of future performance.
Educational information only, not investment or financial advice. Calculator outputs depend on the inputs and assumptions used; they do not predict results or remove trading risk.